AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Arizona on Election Day
WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in Arizona have no shortage of competitive races to decide in the Nov. 5 general election, with control of the White House, the U.S. Senate and House and both chambers of the state Legislature in the balance.
Arizona remains a major electoral battleground four years after President Joe Biden became only the second Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state in nearly 70 years. It is one of four states in the nation’s Sun Belt that has drawn much of the focus of both presidential campaigns in the final sprint to Election Day.
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump are in a tight race for the state’s 11 electoral votes. They and their running mates have made multiple campaign stops there since securing their parties’ nominations over the summer.
Other competitive contests include the race for U.S. Senate, where Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake are running to replace outgoing independent U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and two Republican-held U.S. House seats in Phoenix and Tucson area districts that both went for Biden in 2020.
In the state Legislature, Democrats hope to take over the state Senate for the first time since 1992 and the state House for the first time since 1966, the last time the party controlled the governorship and both chambers simultaneously.
Voters will also decide high-profile statewide ballot measures on abortion, immigration and two competing ballot measures that would either require or eliminate the use of partisan primaries in state elections. Under the state constitution, if two contradictory ballot measures both pass, the one with the most votes in favor would become law, although the matter would likely first head to court.
Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in Arizona:
Nov. 5.
9 p.m. ET. Arizona does not release votes until all precincts have reported or one hour after all polls are closed, whichever is first, usually 10 p.m. ET.
11 awarded to statewide winner.
President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).
U.S. Senate: Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R) and one other.
1st Congressional District: Amish Shah (D) vs. David Schweikert (R).
6th Congressional District: Kirsten Engel (D) vs. Juan Ciscomani (R) and one other.
Ballot measures: Proposition 133 (require partisan primaries), Proposition 139 (right to abortion), Proposition 140 (eliminate partisan primaries), Proposition 314 (criminal penalties for illegal immigration).
State Senate, state House, Corporation Commissioner.
In Arizona, ballots cast and processed before Election Day are the first to be reported after polls close. These ballots have tended to favor Democrats, ever since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election. In the 2022 U.S. Senate election, Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly began the night with a nearly 20 point lead over Republican Blake Masters, but that narrowed to about a 5 point win by the time the results were certified.
Mail ballots that are delivered on Election Day take much longer to tabulate because election workers do not begin processing or verifying them until after polls close. In Maricopa County, which has the state’s largest population, about 20% of the nearly 1.6 million votes cast in 2022 were mail ballots dropped off on Election Day.
Maricopa County is by far the most influential of the state's 15 counties in statewide elections. It is home to Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe and Mesa and contributed nearly 62% of the vote in the 2020 presidential race. Pima County was a distant second with about 15% of the vote.
In statewide elections going back a dozen years, Democrats have always carried four counties in both winning and losing campaigns: Apache, Coconino, Pima and Santa Cruz. In each of those races, the candidate who carried Maricopa won statewide. Maricopa is also one of only 10 counties across the seven battleground states that flipped from Trump to Biden.
The Associated Press doesn’t make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race hasn’t been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, like candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear it hasn’t declared a winner and explain why.
In Arizona, recounts are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that’s eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
2020: Biden (D) 49.4%, Trump (R) 49.1%, AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 2:51 a.m. ET.
Registered voters: 4,109,270 (as of July 30, 2024). About 29% Democrats, about 35% Republicans, about 36% other.
Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 71% of registered voters.
Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 89% of the total vote.
Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 82% of the total vote.
Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.
First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 10:02 p.m. ET.
By midnight ET: about 72% of total votes cast were reported.
___
Associated Press writers Hannah Fingerhut, Larry Fenn and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.
___
Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
___
This story has been corrected to show Arizona has 11 electoral votes, not 16.
© Copyright The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in this news report may not be published, broadcast or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
